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Sinclair, Inc. (SBGI)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 results were mixed: revenue $0.784B and diluted EPS of -$0.91 missed S&P Global consensus, while Adjusted EBITDA of $103M landed above the midpoint of company guidance due to lower media expenses and accrual reversals . Revenue est. $0.800B*, EPS est. -$0.78*, EBITDA est. $104M*; actuals: $0.784B, -$0.91, $103M (Adjusted) . Misses on revenue/EPS were driven by softer-than-expected vMVPD subscriber trends and tariff/macro pressure on core ads .
  • Consolidated core advertising grew $13M YoY to $316M; Local Media core ads were pressured (down 4.7% YoY) but in-line with guidance. Distribution revenue was essentially flat YoY, but modestly below guidance on vMVPD growth softness .
  • Guidance: Q3 2025 media revenue $744–$768M and Adjusted EBITDA $71–$93M; FY 2025 cash taxes reduced sharply to $43–$49M (midpoint improvement of ~$74M vs prior guidance) .
  • Strategic/catalyst items: New CFO (Narinder Sahai), accretive note repurchase ($81M face for $77M cash), strong multicast network growth, and a constructive deregulatory backdrop that may accelerate M&A and JSA buy-ins, providing “tens of millions” of EBITDA at sub-1x multiples per management .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Adjusted EBITDA beat the midpoint of guidance on expense discipline and ~$13M reversals of prior FCC accruals (only ~$3M benefited Adjusted EBITDA) .
  • Consolidated core advertising revenue up 4% YoY (+$13M to $316M); Other segment (Digital Remedy/Compulse) contributed $38M revenue and $7M Adjusted EBITDA; multicast networks delivered record growth with new hits slated for fall .
  • Management tone on regulatory progress was constructive: “the Eighth Circuit… vacated… top four prohibition… and [multicast restrictions]… overturned immediately,” with 18 JSA buy-ins in the pipeline generating “tens of millions” of EBITDA at far less than 1x purchase multiple .

What Went Wrong

  • Revenue/EPS missed consensus: $784M vs $800M* and -$0.91 vs -$0.78*; distribution revenue modestly below guidance from slower vMVPD growth; Local Media core ads down 4.7% YoY (pressure from tariffs/macro) .
  • Operating income fell to $21M (vs $64M prior year); Adjusted EBITDA down 35% YoY to $103M (lower political, no Diamond mgmt fees, higher programming/production/network fees) .
  • A large vMVPD lost subs QoQ; subscriber volatility is expected to swing seasonally (football), complicating near-term distribution trends .

Financial Results

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Billions)$0.829 $0.776 $0.784
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$158 $112 $103
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$64 $14 $21
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.27 -$2.30 -$0.91
Net Income Attributable ($USD Millions)$17 -$156 -$64

Versus estimates (S&P Global; values marked with * and sourced from S&P Global):

Item (Q2 2025)Consensus*ActualSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)799.6*784 -$15.6*
Primary EPS ($USD)-0.78*-0.91 -$0.13*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)103.7*89.0* (SPG definition) / 103 (Adj.) -$14.7* (vs SPG actual)

Segment breakdown:

SegmentQ2 2024 Revenues ($MM)Q2 2024 Adj. EBITDA ($MM)Q2 2025 Revenues ($MM)Q2 2025 Adj. EBITDA ($MM)
Local Media$750 $163 $679 $99
Tennis$67 $7 $68 $13
Other$20 $3 $46 $3
Consolidated$829 $158 $784 $103

KPIs:

KPIQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Distribution Revenue ($MM)$435 $451 $434
Core Advertising Revenue ($MM)$303 $292 $316
Political Advertising Revenue ($MM)$40 $6 $6
Media Revenues ($MM)$819 $770 $777

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Media Revenues ($MM)Q3 2025N/A$744–$768 N/A
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)Q3 2025N/A$71–$93 N/A
Net Cash Tax Payments ($MM)FY 2025$117–$124 $43–$49 Lowered materially
Interest Expense (net) ($MM)FY 2025$357 $356 Slightly lowered
Capital Expenditures ($MM)FY 2025$83–$86 $82–$85 Lowered slightly
Corporate G&A ($MM)FY 2025$174 $176 Raised slightly
Non-Recurring & Unusual Costs ($MM)FY 2025$33 $18 Lowered
Distributions to NCI ($MM)FY 2025$10 $11 Raised
Cash Distributions from Equity Inv. ($MM)FY 2025$29 $29 Maintained
Capex ($MM)Q3 2025N/A$26–$28 N/A

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024 / Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Regulatory/deregulatoryRetrans renewals; strong political year . Refinancing extended maturities to 2029+ .Eighth Circuit vacates top-four rule; multicast restrictions overturned; FCC reviews spectrum/ownership cap; inquiry into network affiliate practices .Tailwinds strengthening for consolidation and JV/duopoly growth.
Distribution revenue/sub trendsUp 5% YoY in Q3 2024 .Essentially flat YoY; below guidance on slower vMVPD growth; one major vMVPD lost subs QoQ; seasonal rebound expected with football .Near-term softness; potential seasonal improvement.
Core advertising+1% YoY in Q3 2024 despite record political . Down 2% YoY in Q1 2025 .Consolidated core +$13M YoY; Local Media core down 4.7% YoY; tariff/macro pressure on Tier 2/3 auto, with green shoots emerging .Mixed, improving in select categories.
AI/technology/NextGen TVFAA drone ops approval; NextGen ecosystem activity .EdgeBeam Wireless CEO appointed; D2M feature phone launch partnership; ATSC 3.0 lighthouse WKOF Syracuse .Building platforms for data-casting and mobile broadcast.
Ventures strategyPortfolio distributions and investments .$726M book value of hidden assets (ex-Tennis/Digital Remedy); pivot to majority-owned assets; $393M cash at Ventures .Monetization optionality rising; sum-of-parts emphasized.
Multicast networksLimited prior disclosure.Record growth; top-10 DMA coverage gains; new fall content slate (Criminal Minds, Xena, etc.) .Strong secular growth.
Legal/Regulatory accrualsN/A.~$13M reversal of FCC-related accruals; ~$3M benefit to Adjusted EBITDA .One-time positive impact; limited EBITDA effect.

Management Commentary

  • “We delivered solid second quarter results… Adjusted EBITDA exceeding the midpoint… We successfully rebranded Compulse under the Digital Remedy name… our multicast networks delivered record-breaking growth… our audio strategy continues to expand with five new AMP sports podcasts” — Chris Ripley, CEO .
  • “Local Media and Tennis Channel delivered adjusted EBITDA of $99M and $13M… media expenses were $23M favorable… and we reversed approximately $13M in previously accrued [FCC] expenses; only $3M benefited Adjusted EBITDA” — Narinder Sahai, CFO .
  • “The Eighth Circuit… vacated the antiquated FCC prohibition of owning two top four ranked TV stations… multicast restrictions… overturned immediately… we have 18 more JSA buy-ins planned… contributing tens of millions of dollars of additional EBITDA… at far less than one times purchase multiple” — Chris Ripley, CEO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Retrans/affiliate dynamics and vMVPD subs: Management seeing decreases in certain reverse comp and stronger negotiating position as exclusivity erodes (e.g., D2C launches), while a large vMVPD lost subs in Q2; expects seasonal sub bump with football .
  • M&A pipeline accretion: Expect “tens of millions” EBITDA from JSA buy-ins at sub-1x multiples; deregulation accelerates pipeline (station swaps, service agreements) .
  • Core ad visibility: Tariff-induced weakness hit Tier 2/3 auto; signs of improvement into fall (sports inventory tighter); Tier 1 remained strong .
  • Guidance parsing: Q3 distribution lower partly due to divestiture of four markets (Rincon); Digital Remedy contribution steady vs Q2 .

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for Q2 2025: Revenue $799.6M*, Primary EPS -$0.78*, EBITDA $103.7M*. Actuals: Revenue $784M, EPS -$0.91, Adjusted EBITDA $103M (company-defined) . Misses on revenue/EPS; EBITDA comparison depends on definition (SPG EBITDA actual shows $89M* vs company Adjusted EBITDA $103M). Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Where estimates may adjust:

  • Near-term revenue estimates likely trimmed on slower vMVPD growth and Local Media core ad pressure; FY cash tax estimates should be revised lower consistent with company guidance cut ($43–$49M vs $117–$124M prior) .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Revenue/EPS misses were primarily driven by vMVPD growth softness and macro/tariff-related ad headwinds; expense discipline and accrual reversals supported EBITDA within guidance .
  • Consolidated core ad revenue grew YoY (+$13M), but Local Media core ads declined 4.7% YoY; watch Tier 2/3 auto normalization and fall sports tailwinds for potential sequential improvement .
  • Distribution trends are near-term choppy (one major vMVPD lost subs), but management expects seasonal pickup with football; monitor Q3 guidance midpoints and Rincon divestiture impact .
  • Regulatory environment is turning favorable, potentially unlocking consolidation and JSA buy-ins with attractive returns (“tens of millions” EBITDA at <1x multiples) — a medium-term rerating catalyst .
  • FY 2025 cash taxes cut materially ($43–$49M vs $117–$124M prior), improving FCF outlook; capex and interest expense trajectories slightly lower .
  • Ventures sum-of-parts and cash ($726M book; $393M cash) provide optionality for monetizations and majority-owned asset pivot; potential to crystallize overlooked value .
  • Tactical: watch Q3 core ad cadence, vMVPD sub trends, and any announced JSA buy-ins/market swaps; strategic review for broadcast/ventures separation could unlock value paths post-Q2 .

S&P Global estimates disclaimer: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.